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Arthur Eckart (302) 
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20 Articles Total
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| SPX Major Support Level The SPX six-month daily chart below suggests roughly 1,480 will hold for the remainder of 2007, which is roughly the low of the May to July topping process, the converging 50 & 200 day MAs, and the low when the FOMC eased the money supply in... ( added 1 year 52 days ago.) |
| Potential Market Reaction After the FOMC Announcement The FOMC is expected to ease the money supply on Tuesday for the first time in over four years and since the tightening cycle of 2004-06, when the Fed Funds Rate was raised from 1% to 5 1/4%. Generally, over the 2000s, U.S. actual output has been... ( added 1 year 65 days ago.) |
| Inverse Head & Shoulders or Test of Low? SPX may be developing an inverse head & shoulders pattern, which would create a V-bottom. The implication is SPX will hold roughly 1,440 and test the high at roughly 1,550 before the end of September. However, if SPX falls significantly below 1... ( added 1 year 72 days ago.) |
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| OIH (Oil ETF) & MFI (Money Flow Index) Last week, oil rose $0.60 to $69.14, while OIH (Oil ETF) rose $2.55 to $180.20 after a volatile week. Currently, OIH is severely overbought with the weekly RSI and ULT (above price chart) both above 70, and the weekly MFI (below price chart) above... ( added 1 year 149 days ago.) |
| Overbought OIH (Oil ETF) Both the S & P 500 and Dow Industrials are near their yearly highs. However, technical indicators are roughly neutral short-term, although the market may pullback next week, and then rise into the new quarter, the 4th of July holiday, and earnings... ( added 1 year 156 days ago.) |
| Recent NYMO Extreme Levels The first chart is a daily NYMO (red dotted line and right scale) and daily SPX (black line and left scale) three-year comparison chart. The second chart is a weekly SPX three-year chart, with 10 & 40 week MAs and volume, which can be compared to... ( added 1 year 239 days ago.) |
| Two-Week Forecast Using VIX The first chart is a two-year daily chart of SPX to VIX ratio (dots and right scale) with its 50-day MA (blue line) and SPX (red line and left scale). The SPX to VIX ratio rose sharply from roughly 50 in June to 140 in November. Last week, SPX to... ( added 1 year 352 days ago.) |
| Two Previous S&P 500 Corrections Within two weeks, SPX reached a high at 1,326.70 and a low at 1,256.28. Consequently, a correction may be underway that's not yet complete. The first three daily charts below show the SPX 1994 correction, the current 2006 SPX, and the initial SPX... ( added 2 years 183 days ago.) |
| SPX Short Term Trading Range SPX fell sharply Fri on slightly stronger than expected employment reports. Short-term technical indicators suggest a trading range next week. Financial markets will be closed Apr 14th for Good Friday, and the week after next is options expiration... ( added 2 years 225 days ago.) |
| SPX: Trading Below Major Resistance The three charts below may indicate SPX direction over the next one to three months. The first chart is a 2 1/2 year chart of SPX with its 20-day MA (black and blue lines), VIX 20-day MA (red line), and CPC 20-day MA (green line). There's... ( added 2 years 232 days ago.) |
| SPX to VIX and CPC Ratios The first chart is an SPX daily chart that shows the rising 10-day MA generally held recently. If the 10-day MA continues to hold, then SPX should continue to bounce off that MA and rise higher. However, there are many resistance levels between 1... ( added 2 years 240 days ago.) |
| Volatile Options Expiration Week Next week is options expiration week, which is typically volatile. Also, important economic reports next week may generate even greater volatility. The Fed (i.e. Federal Reserve) has adopted a "data dependent" policy, which makes inflation related... ( added 2 years 282 days ago.) |
| SPX Megaphone Pattern On Friday, SPX fell over 23 points, while the Dow declined over 210 points, and Nasdaq fell about 55 points. Oil rose $1.52 to close at $68.35 a barrel. Earnings generally only met expectations, after the market became overbought, and recent... ( added 2 years 303 days ago.) |
| Will the Fed Tightening Cycle End in Early 2006? U.S. ECONOMIC BACKGROUND AND POLICY In a free market system, when demand exceeds supply, prices rise and there is excess profit. So, new supply is created, until excess profit disappears. In the U.S. over the past few years, inflation accelerated... ( added 2 years 330 days ago.) |
| Will the Cyclical Bull Market End in 2006? The first two charts below are same period weekly charts of the Nasdaq 100 to Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index and the Nasdaq 100. Over time, the Nasdaq 100 will rise, while its Volatility Index will trade in a range. So, the ratio will rise over time.... ( added 2 years 338 days ago.) |
| The U.S. Consumption Bubble There have been several important structural shifts in the U.S. economy over the past 25 years. One important recent shift has been a higher level consumption, through a multiplier effect beyond autonomous consumption, which accelerated over the... ( added 2 years 345 days ago.) |
| PPH Chart & Components The PPH (Pharma Holders ETF) weekly three-year chart below shows a consolidation around 75, from October 1st 2002 to September 30th 2005. PPH began a rally in the previous three Octobers, and didn't stay below 70 for long. However, the Stochastics... ( added 3 years 49 days ago.) |
| SPX (S&P 500) Intermediate-Term Trend Predictor The FOMC tightened the money supply on Tuesday by raising the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75%, for the 11th time in about 18 months. Consequently, SPX fell over 30 points Tuesday through Thursday, and closed the week down about 23 points... ( added 3 years 58 days ago.) |
| The Perfect Economy? The U.S. economic data reported this week showed strong output growth with tame inflation. Industrial Production expanded at about 1% in June, three times greater than expected, while both the June Consumer and Producer Price Indices were... ( added 3 years 128 days ago.) |
| SPX (S&P 500) Trading Range European stock markets fell sharply Thu after several bombs exploded in London causing the U.S. stock market to open low. However, the U.S. market finished with a gain at the end of day. It's uncertain why the U.S. market held up so well. Perhaps... ( added 3 years 134 days ago.) |
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