Home » Writer's Blogs » Phil-Bennetts

Foreign Exchange Explained

Phil Bennetts ⁽³¹⁷⁾ United Kingdom

Phil Bennetts

Currency Market Update 19/11/09

Posted Thursday, November 19, 2009 (3 days 17 hours ago.) Viewed 2 times.

The Pound took a setback yesterday dropping below the 1.12 level. Data released caused some concern as the 9 people who set the British monetary policy agree that the next few years the economy is not going to be much fun and they don't all agree how to fix the problem. The minutes revealed only seven out of the nine voted to buy another 25bn of assets over the next quarter. It looks like sterling could be under pressure the rest of the week as economists forecast that public sector borrowing will increase to GBP 7.0B in October.

The Dollar gained against the pound yesterday after poor UK data however held its own against the Euro. With lots of data out today for the UK, Euro and the US we could see a volatile market.

The Euro took advantage of poor data from the UK yesterday but at the moment seems to be range bound against the dollar. Again the market is likely to be volatile for the rest of the week as data out from Germany tomorrow could have an impact on the currency.

Interbank Rates at 7.41 am UK Time

GBP-EURO 1.119

GBP-USD 1.67

GBP-AUD 1.806

Major Data out today

EU ECB Governing Council non-rate setting meeting
JP Leading indicator (F)
UK Public Finances (PSNCR)
UK M4 Money Supply (P)
UK Retail Sales
US Initial Claims
CA Leading indicator
US Philadelphia Fed Survey
US Leading Indicator

Phil Bennetts

Currency Exchange Service

Permalink Comments (0)

Currency Exchange Update 18/11/09

Posted Wednesday, November 18, 2009 (4 days 17 hours ago.) Viewed 2 times.

The Pound continued from Mondays trading as sterling enjoyed another day of strength. With highs of just over 1.13 on the Euro and 1.6873 on the Dollar. If gains are to continue today the CBI data must be good and the BOE meeting minutes must have a positive light for investors. Meanwhile the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) climbed to 1.5% in October, up from 1.1% in September. The Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation measure, which includes mortgage interest payments and housing costs, rose to -0.8% from -1.4%.

The Dollar hit an overnight low of 1.6873 against the Pound as data for the U.K. reinforced an improved outlook. However the Bank of England meeting minutes are scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT this morning, we could see the Pound/ Dollar hold a narrow range as investors weigh up the outlook for future policy.

The Euro recorded a 3.7bn-euro trade surplus. It had been expected that the deficit would be approximately 2bn Euros. A steep climb in exports contributed to the surplus. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, exports rose 5.5% in August. The economy has grown by 0.4% in the third quarter lifting the Euro zone out of recession.

Phil Bennetts

Currency Exchange Service

Permalink Comments (0)

Currency Exchange Update 17/11/09

Posted Tuesday, November 17, 2009 (5 days 17 hours ago.) Viewed 3 times.

The Pound enjoyed a good day on the markets yesterday. With at long last a close above the 1.12 level, we could see some sterling strength. However a cautionary note that data out today could see us rebound back into the 1.11's

The Dollar again fell against the Pound and Euro after the Fed's Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to keep interest rates at a record low to help with the economic recovery, but he also said the central bank will monitor the weak U.S. dollar. Higher interest rates can support a currency as investors transfer funds in search of better returns.

The Euro consumer prices again fell in October, the fifth straight month by 0.1% but the pace of the decline has slowed down from -0.3% from the previous month. Energy costs are down 0.8% from a year ago as household's cut back on spending amid the rising unemployment. Weak domestic demand continues to force retailers to cut prices

Phil Bennetts

Currency Exchange Service

Permalink Comments (0)

Currency Exchange Update 16/11/09

Posted Monday, November 16, 2009 (6 days 17 hours ago.) Viewed 1 times.

The Pound a report from Rightmove PLC has stated that for the first time in three months UK house sellers have been asked to reduce house prices as demand dwindles leading into Christmas. The average price fell by 1.6% to 226.440.00 from October when they rose by 2.8%. Meanwhile the currency has shaken off the down trend from last week and opens this morning on a positive note against both the Euro and the Dollar.

The Dollar fell again against the majors on Friday after the US government said the trade deficit had widened in September. This lured investors away from the safe-haven dollar. The trend still indicates that investors approach in the market is still that of risk rather than a cautious approach.

The Euro speculation is growing that the ECB could raise interest rates in the near future. Investors are claiming the Euro is the one currency to watch. With a rate increase, we could see the Euro making even further gains against the pound and the dollar. However we could see some resistance to the increase as business in the Euro zone could suffer. Short term the Euro zone has some big data out today anything released that could be considered negative; we could see sterling head towards 1.13's

Interbank Rates at 8.10am UK time

GBP-EURO 1.115

GBP-USD 1.672

GBP AUD 1.79

Phil Bennetts

Foreign Exchange Explained

Permalink Comments (0)

Currency Exchange Update 13/11/09

Posted Friday, November 13, 2009 (9 days 16 hours ago.) Viewed 6 times.

The Pound hit the weeks low against the dollar yesterday, as sterling weakness continued after the comments from the BOE governor Mervyn King said further Quantitative Easing measures are not being ruled out, he also highlighted the benefits of a weak currency. However Sterling rose against the euro late afternoon, retracing back from an earlier two-week low, with traders selling of Euros versus sterling by corporate accounts.

The Dollar gained on Thursday against the Pound and the Euro after a U.S. report showed initial U.S. weekly jobless claims were lower than initially expected. The report had a much greater impact on trading in recent months. The U.S. Labour Department announced that jobless benefit claims fell to 502,000 in the latest week from a revised 514,000 in the prior week.

The Euro all eyes will be on Germany and France this morning data out from both countries could have a big impact on both the Pound and USD status. The Pound has opened this morning with a surge against the Euro after GDP data for Germany was slightly worse than expected.

Major Data out today

DE GDP

FR CPI

FR HICP

EURO HICP

US Univ of Mich Sent. (P)

Phil Bennetts

Foreign Exchange Explained

http://www.foreign-exchange-advice.info

Permalink Comments (0)

Currency Exchange Update 12/11/09

Posted Thursday, November 12, 2009 (10 days 16 hours ago.) Viewed 3 times.

The Pound yesterday had a mixed bag of data and fell below the 1.11 on the Euro and 1.66 on the Dollar. The number of people unemployed in the UK rose slightly in the three months to September; however it was the smallest increase since May 2008. The jobless rate moved up to 7.8% from 7.7%, but the youth unemployment rate rose by a staggering19.8%. The number of people claiming unemployment benefit also rose by 12,900 to 1.64 million in October. Bank of England governor Mervyn King said yesterday The UK economy has "only just started" along its road to economic recovery.

The Dollar enjoyed some rest bite against the Pound and Euro yesterday however it still remains under pressure as investors continue to seek riskier assets.

The Australian Dollar Australia's economy unexpectedly created more jobs than in October, with more than 24,000 people finding new employment. It is the second monthly gain in a row and analysts speculating that interest rates could be increased in December from 3.5% to 3.75%.

Major data out today

AU Employment

AU Unemployment

FR Current Account

US Initial Claims

CA House Price Index

Phil Bennetts

Foreign Exchange Explained

http://www.foreign-exchange-advice.info

Permalink Comments (0)