Mid-Term Election Scorecard (2006)

Historically, mid-term elections favor the party that is the minority in Congress. This year it’s the Democrats. These elections also tend to be tough on 2^nd term presidents. Past mid-term contests also indicate that while a president is not up for re-election, his policies and public standing are paramount in the minds of voters as they go to the polls and choose their representatives. A tally of the current House of Representatives shows that Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to wrest control from Republicans. As the weeks tick down and the scandals keep emerging, that scenario seems more probable than ever. However, nothing is guaranteed and the landscape continues to change daily.

An examination of the most dramatic mid-term elections of the 20^th century offer some interesting parallels. The elections of 1938, 1958, 1966 and 1974 changed the balance and control of the House by 71, 47, 47 and 43 seats respectively. The factors that seem to jump off the pages of history indicate Republicans have more than a few things to worry about in this election cycle. In 1938, Franklin Roosevelt’s Democrats lost a whopping 71 seats because of a backlash against his efforts to pack the Supreme Court with favorable judges and his attempts to oust Democratic legislators who opposed his New Deal policies. FDR and George Bush closely parallel one another in the sense that both are viewed as executive power grabbers and had/have vocal detractors in both parties. Recession also played a key role in the ‘38 election, however that will not affect Republican candidates nearly as much as the likely backlash from Americans who fear the administration’s penchant for pushing the limits of the Constitution.

The 1966 mid-term election also presents a close parallel to another Bush problem: a lack of success in an unpopular war. While social unrest and unchecked Beltway spending contributed to Lyndon Johnson’s congressional undoing, the Vietnam War was undoubtedly the most significant factor that moved voters and shifted control of the House from Democrats to Republicans that year by a margin of 47 seats, more than three times the number of seats needed to move the Speaker’s gavel from right to left. An expensive war in Iraq, a mounting death toll and the perception that things are getting worse and not better spells an increasing number of lost congressional seats for Republicans at the polls.

On the other hand, President Bush will probably get a pass on the condition of today’s economy. The elections of 1938, ’58 and ’74 all had recession as a contributing factor to congressional shifts but with gas prices dropping and unemployment numbers tucked away in the small print, other issues will loom larger in the minds of middle-class families and the voting public.

The problems that are most likely to affect voter behavior in this election seem to fall evenly on both sides of the House aisle, so it seems only fair to present a balanced scorecard that will allow America to make up her own mind as to what will happen on November 7^th. Here are five problems areas the Republicans have to worry about and five that will keep Democrats awake at night.

Republican Problem Areas:

Iraq Plunging Into Civil War

This election will be referendum on the Bush administration’s handling of the war in Iraq. The recent National Intelligence Estimates, increased troop levels, a perception that Americans were misled and the uneasy feeling that the US could be losing another guerilla war could hold dire consequences not only for members of the House, but could also sway seats in the Senate as well.

Troubled Republican Legislators

Former congressmen Foley, DeLay, Cunningham and possibly Speaker Hastert all present an image problem for the Republicans that may cause moral-minded soccer moms to get queasy stomachs and switch parties. The same moderate constituents that rebelled against Clinton and Gore after the Monica Lewinski affair could very well swing back the other direction.

Military Beginning to Crack

Earlier this year, an unprecedented six retired generals went public with their displeasure with the commander-in-chief. The troops on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan are battle-weary, losing motivation and their young families at home are coming apart. Many are on their 3^rd and 4^th tours of combat duty and tens of thousands whose contractual obligations are complete are being involuntarily extended and sent back overseas. The 1.3 million men and women in uniform may not be talking to the press but they and their extended families will vent their frustrations at the voting booth.

Mutiny Within the Party

The public is beginning to get a sense of the level of dissent within the Republican Party over issues like Donald Rumsfeld’s leadership and policies regarding the treatment of detainees. President Bush is also conspicuously absent on the congressional campaign trail as legislators seek to distance themselves from the party’s lightning rod. The Mark Foley scandal (probably leaked by the Democrats) has come at a terrible time for Republicans. It has already produced at least one resignation by a staffer and has conservative legislators taking vicious shots at one another.

Jack Abramoff Scandal

The biggest lobbying scandal in decades adds to the perception that Republicans may be too close to lobbyists and their money. While the Abramoff scandal is rightfully connected to legislators of both parties, a recent federal report shows Abramoff had a closer relationship with the White House than what was previously admitted. With overall congressional ratings dipping below 30%, Democratic candidates are sure to raise the spector of Abramoff’s Republican ties wherever they find them.

Democratic Problem Areas:

Immigration Policies

Democrats have not cultivated a “get-tough" image that convinces states like Texas, Arizona and California that they can handle immigration issues. Given the complexity of the social issues surrounding immigration, Democrats seem to be paralyzed and unable to act. Republican candidates all over the country will be highlighting this issue in their talking points.

Terrorism

Notwithstanding Bush’s problems in Iraq, this issue will continue to dog Democrats. Bush’s problems hurt his credibility on this issue but do nothing to improve the Democrat’s image as being weak on terrorism. Bill Clinton’s recent interview with Chris Wallace only serves to show how much of a sore spot this is for Dems. Terrorism will continue to be an uphill battle for Democrats until they have an opportunity to demonstrate competency and produce results in this area.

Minority & Young Adult Voting Patterns

Many African Americans, Hispanics and voters under the age of 30 are notorious for not showing up at the polls in support of issues that are meaningful to them. These groups have a tendency to believe their vote will be swallowed up and rendered ineffective, particularly if they live in strong conservative districts. A sense of political and economic disenfranchisement fuels these sentiments and these groups will continue to stay away from the polls in the foreseeable future.

Fundraising

In the 2003-04 fundraising season, the Republicans raised 30% more soft money and twice as much hard money as the Democrats. This year, Republicans are expected to pour three times as much money as normal into key congressional races. Given the corporate, political and evangelical fundraising mechanisms that the Republicans have in place, this will continue to be a known and expected weakness for Democrats.

Lack of a Coherent Plan

This is a mixed bag for the political left. Even most Democrats agree that there is no stated, coherent plan for governing if they suddenly became the majority. The voting public is going to have to decide between “no stated plan" or “stay the course". With the problems Republicans are having in the polls and in the halls of Congress, Americans may decide having “no stated plan" is better than the current alternative.

Copyright © Joseph Collins (2006)