I) INTRODUCTION: An issue which has occupied the minds of governments for decades is the effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing economic variables. Despite the lack of consensus among economists on how it actually works and on the magnitude of its effect on the economy, there is a remarkable strong agreement that monetary policy has some measure of effects on the economy (Udegbunam,2003). Monetary policy refers to the combination of measures designed to regulate the value, supply and cost of money in an economy, in consonance with the level of economic activities. It can be described as the art of controlling the direction and movement of monetary and credit facilities in pursuance of stable price and economy growth in an economy (CBN,1992).
In modern economies the central Bank is the authority with the mandate of manipulating monetary policy, through monetary instruments, to achieving desired macroeconomic objective. The mandate of Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN) and the specific objective pursued in meeting this mandate derives essentially from the CBN Act of 1958, as amended in successive reviews and consolidated in Act 24 and 25 of 1991 and subsequent amendment in 1998 and 1999, specifically the bank’s primary objectives, as contained in the Act have remained largely unchanged1. Embedded in these broad objectives is the mandate to conduct monetary and financial policies with view to promoting economic growth and development in Nigeria, with evolution of Nigeria economy and along with instruments of monetary policy (see Nkoro, 2003).
However, the primary objective of monetary policy that cuts across the mandates of most central banks is the maintenance of price stability, which is fundamental to the attainment of sustainable growth. That is, the focus of
1 These objectives include issue of legal currency notes and coins, maintain Nigeria’s external reserve to safeguard the international value of the legal tender currency, promote monetary stability and a sound and efficient system, act as banker and financial adviser to federal government, and act as the lender of last resort.
central banking in an increasing number of economies is the fight against inflation, the CBN is still saddled with the attendant risk of policy conflict.
The pursuit of price stability, invariably implies the indirect pursuit of other objectives such as economic growth, which can only take place under conditions of price stability and allocative efficiency of the financial markets. Since inflation is generally considered as purely a monetary phenomenon, with significant cost to the economy, the primary goal of monetary policy is to ensure that money supply is at a level that is consistent with the growth target of real income, such that non-inflationary growth will be ensured. The pursuit of price stability, therefore, encompasses all main areas in which the central bank can contribute towards stabilizing the macroeconomic environment of the country.
Money is more closely related to aggregate level of spending, price, production and employment than any other single economic variable (Kaufman, 1978). An excess supply of money which will result an excess demand for goods and service and in turn causes rising price/ deterioration of the balance of payments position.
With the achievement of price stability, the uncertainties of general price level will not materially affect consumption and investment decision. Rather, economic agents will take long-term decision without much reservation about price change in the macroeconomic. In addition, the conditions in the financial market and institutions would create a high degree of confidence, such that the financial infrastructure of the economy is able to meet the requirements of market participants. Indeed, an unstable or crisis-ridded financial sector will render the transmission mechanism of monetary policy less effective, making the achievement and maintenance of strong macroeconomic fundamentals difficult. This is because it is only in a period of price stability that investors and consumers can interpret market signal correctly. Typically, in period of high inflation, the horizon of the investor is very short and resources are diverted from long-term investment to those with immediate returns and inflation hedges2.
.
2.These include real estate and currency speculation.
From a historical perspective, it has been observed that absence of official monetary management has exposed economies to economic crisis when money was either too much or too scarce3.
This study examines a descriptive analysis of the relationship between
Money supply and inflation, and identify factors that affect/hamper the
effectiveness of monetary policy in Nigeria for the period 1980-2000.
The estimated parameters will be useful to other researchers in conducting
similar analysis.
II) MONEY SUPPLY: DEFINITION AND DETERMINANTS.
DEFINITION:
The problem of defining money supply is still associated with a lot of
Controversy. According to Anyanwu(1993), money supply is the total
amount of money (e.g. currency and demand deposits) in circulation in a country at any given time. Currency in circulation is made up of coins and notes, while demand deposits or checking current account are those obligations which are not related with any interest payment and accepted by the public as a means of exchange drawn without notice by means of cheque.
The stock of money can be measured in any given time in an economy. There are two concepts employed in measuring money supply. The first defined as the stock of narrow money (usually designated by M1) consists of paper currencies and coins in circulation in the hands of the non-banking public and the demand deposit (of the non-banking public) with commercial bank3. This first concept can be synonymous with that given by Anyanwu (1993). The second concept is defined, since the M1 is viewed as narrow in the sense that it does not contain commodities that are near monies. This concept defined money stock (designated by m2) as M1 plus time and savings(fixed) deposit. Thus, Economists use the stock money to mean narrow money, since savings and time deposit are not usually a medium of exchange4.
3 The component of narrow money is usually called the stock of high-powered money.
4 See Iyoha etal (1998).
Money supply in Nigeria can be defined as the total amount of currencies outside the shore of banks, demand deposits with the central
bank, less federal, state and local governments’ demand deposits at commercial banks(see Ajayi and ojo, 1981).
However, for the purpose of this study, money supply shall be defined as a stock at a particular point in time, it conveys the idea of a flow over time. Thus, money supply at any moment is the total amount of money in the economy.
DETERMINANTS:
According to Jhingan (1986), there are two theories of the determination of the money supply. Which one is exogenous determinant, while the other is endogenous determinant. Thus, the determinants of money supply are both exogenous and endogenous, which can be described broadly as
i) Required reserve ratio.
ii) Level of bank reserve
iii) The desire of the people to hold currency relative to deposits.
In other words, money supply is determined by the following factors as numerated below:
i) central bank behaviour.
ii) Behaviour of non-bank public .
iii) Behaviour of commercial banks.
These determinants are synonymous with the under listed, specifically money is influenced by the following factors
a) Reserve requirement.
b) Demand for currency
c) Demand for excess reserve.
d) Interest rate
e) Bank rate.
III) MONETARY POLICY TARGETS.
Monetary policy (targets) variables are variables for which the government seeks desirable values and are the (intermediate) goals of macroeconomic policy. Macroeconomic policies are the actions of the policy makers directed at influencing the levels of employment, price, output, income distribution, the exchange rate and the balance of payments. These variables, the level of which government seeks to influence along desirable
lines through appropriate policy choice, are usually called policy (targets) variables (opcit).
Monetary policy targets are usually affected through the use of policy instruments. These are principally exogenous variables whose values are
determined independent of other variables in the system and which the government can manipulate to achieve desirable objectives.
The question of monetary policy target now arises because of the ultimate objectives of macroeconomic policy are not directly and immediately affected by monetary policy.
The two most commonly used intermediate targets of monetary policy are the money supply and the interest rate. Fundamentally, there exists an inverse relationship between the two variable such that any target set for one must be consistent with the other.
IV) MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS
According to Iyoha (2002), the instruments of discretional monetary policy include the following
i) Open market operation.
ii) Discount rate.
iii) Reserve requirement
iv) Moral suasion.
v) Direct control of banking system credit, and
vi) Direct regulation of interest rate.
OPEN MARKET OPERATION: Involves the sales or purchase of government securities to/from commercial banks and non-bank public with the view to regulate the cost and availability of credit. The open market sale of securities by the CB is concretionary while purchase depends on the existence of a well-developed securities market, while in responsive to market forces and one which has a large amount of easily marketable government securities.
DISCOUNT RATE: the rate of which CB lends to its commercial banks. The interest rate charged by CB is known as discount or rediscount rate. By varying discount rate CB can influence the credit availability, as lender of last resort to commercial banks. Its direct impact is on credit cost, unlike OMO, that has direct impact on reserve of commercial banks.
RESERVE REQUIREMENT: set a minimum balance on the liquidity of commercial banks vis-à-vis their liabilities. They have two uses: to ensure the solvency of banking system, and control the expansion of credit creation as an objective of monetary policy.
MORAL SUASION: a process by which the CB make known to commercial banks officials through informal (oral or written) discussion the direction in which they wish monetary policy to proceed and the contribution, which is expected of the commercial banks. Unlike the formal compliance is not legally enforceable.
DIRECT CONTROL OF BANKING SYSTEM : involves the imposition of quantitative ceilings on the overall and/or sectoral distribution of credit by CB. This tool is selective, not general, it is direct. This can be used as a weapon for economic development.
DIRECT REGULATION OF INTEREST RATE: generally used in LDCs and not in ACs. In ACs, interest rates are market determined to a large extent. However, in LDCs like Nigeria, interest rates are administered. In particular, interest rates are fixed within which both the deposit and the lending rates are expected to be maintained by the commercial banks.
VI) CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY TO ACHIEVING MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
Giving the bank’s mandate to promote macroeconomic stability through the conduct of monetary policy, it is pertinent to examine how monetary policy has faired vis-à-vis the attainment of its stated objectives to achieve domestic price stability as a necessary condition for promoting high output and employment growth and a healthy balance of payments position. However, maintenance of price stability is often difficult to attain, at least in the short-run because of its apparent conflicts with other macroeconomic objectives, such as output and employment growth. Consequently, monetary management invariably involves some trade-offs with other national economic policy objectives.
The conduct of monetary policy solely relied on direct control measures, which involves imposition of selective sectoral control and credit ceiling, interest rate control, cash reserve requirement, exchange rate control and call for special deposits. The use of market-based instrument was not successful due to the under-development of the financial market in the early part of period under review.
The focus of sectoral bank credit allocation was to energized activities in the real sector of the economy, while interest rate ceilings imposed were to promote investment and output growth. Imposition of call for advance deposits, compulsory deposits on bank on import and issuance of stabilization securities were introduced to reduce banks’ ability to expand credits in order to reduce domestic price pressure, BOPs positions.
The overall economic environment under which monetary policy was conducted deteriorated in the 1980s as the oil boom of the 1970s came to an unexpected end. As shown in table 1, the spot oil price from Bonny light fell from US$38.82 per barrel in 1980 to US$30.00 per barrel in 1983,as the recession continued spot oil price fell further to US$14.16 per barrel in 1986, while export earnings from oil fell from N13,306.93million to N10,993.10million in 1986. Thus , government developmental strategies changed, the direct control measures aimed at reducing aggregate demand and restore external equilibrium were tightened up.
Therefore, it is worthy to comprehend that the era of oil boom left the economy with unacceptable development that stigmatized the macroeconomic management. Thus, heavy dependence on the oil sector as the major source of government revenue and foreign exchange earnings and government expenditure. Also banks’ compliance with credit guidelines was less than expected. As can be seen in table 1,macroeconomic environment was engulfed by pressure, as the growth of domestic liquidity increased further, M1 rose from 50.1% in 1980 to 62.2% in 2000. The expansion was attributed to the rapid increase in banks credit to the domestic economy(see table 3). As recession persisted, oil receipts were no longer adequate to meeting increasing levels of demands and since expenditures were not rationalized, government resorted to borrowing from CBN to finance its huge deficits. Thus, making monetary instability.
1986-2000
Thus, the Structural Adjustment programme (SAP) was adopted in july,1986 against the collapsed of world oil market and the ugly nature of the economy. It was designed to achieve internal and external balances by altering and restructuring the production and consumption patterns of the economy, eliminating price distortions, reducing the heavy dependence on crude oil exports and consumer goods imports, enhancing the non-oil export base and achieving sustainable growth(see sanusi, 2002).
The objectives of monetary policy since 1986 have remained the same as earlier stated.
In accordance with SAP, monetary policy was aimed at introducing market-oriented financial system for effective mobilization of financial savings and efficient resource allocation. The main instrument of the market-based is the open market operation, OMO. This is complemented by reserve requirements and discount window operations. The introduction of OMO in an economy that had been under direct control for long, needed substantial improvement in the macroeconomic, legal and infrastructural environment for effective operation.
In combination with monetary policy, a number of important and far-reaching financial policies were formulated and executed during this period. A major financial policy was financial deregulation, which involves essentially interest rate and exchange rate deregulation(Udegbunam, 2003).
To ensure successive take-off of market-oriented monetary policy, thus, improve macroeconomic stability. The following measures were taken:
a) Reduction in the minimum ceiling on credit growth allowed for banks.
b) The recall of the special deposits requirements against outstanding external payment arrears to CBN from banks.
c) Abolition of the use of foreign guarantee/currency deposits as collaterals for naira loans.
d) Withdrawal of public sector deposits from banks to the CBN.
e) The use of stabilization securities for the purposes of reducing the size of excess liquidity in banks was re-introduced.
f) Commercial banks’ cash reserve was increased.
g) The minimum paid-up capital was increased to N20million and N12million for commercial and merchant banks respectively, in 1992, it was also increased to N50million and N40million for commercial and merchant banks respectively further, it was also increased in 1997, to N500million for both banks also increased to N25billion with effect from 2005.
h) A deposit insurance corporation-the Nigeria deposit insurance corporation(NDIC) was established in 1988 as an additional regulatory body to help in ensuring safety, soundness and confidence in the deregulated banking sector, and
i) Two important decrees were promulgated to enhance the operation of CBN, they are CBN decree No24 of 1991 and banks and other financial institutions decree (BODFID) No25 of 1991 these decrees widened further the powers of CBN in the area of monetary policy, bank supervision and examination, and prudential regulation (Udegbunam, 2003).
Nevertheless, excess liquidity, money growth and inflation problems intensified. Thus, had adverse implications for monetary management. Table 1 reveals that, except in 1986 and 1990, inflation rate had been consistently two-digit, between 1986-1999. This was attributed to persistent government deficits. Liquidity ratio increasingly exceeded 30% except in 1992, while M1 growth had been higher than the targeted growth over this period, this also was attributed to rapid increase in banks’ credit to the economy.
In September 1, 1992, there was a major change in monetary operating techniques, from the use of direct control to indirect control operating techniques. The CBN, lifted credit ceiling imposition on individual banks that met CBN requirements on selective basis in respect of minimum capital base, capital adequacy ratio, cash reserve and liquidity ratio requirement, prudential guidelines, sectoral credit allocation and sound management. On June 30, 1993, CBN commenced OMO in treasury securities with banks through discount houses on a weekly basis.
With the introduction of indirect monetary control instrument, CBN now controls the stock of money (from banks and non-bank public) through manipulating the monetary base or reserve aggregates. This was expected to move the interest rates to the desirable position, so that through their influence on monetary aggregates and market interest rates, the ultimate goals of monetary policy may be achieved.
However, the role of discount houses is to serve as intermediaries between CBN and the banks that met CBN requirements. As intermediaries they underwrite new issues of treasure securities and provide discount facilities to banks in need of funds. They also provide banks an avenue to invest their idle cash balances (see Udegbunam, 2003).
OMO involves the sales or purchases of eligible government securities to/from banks and non-bank public with a view to regulate the cost and availability of credit and ultimately real economic activity. Most often CBN invites the discount houses to offer bills to it, or offer bill to discount houses for outright purchase or under-repurchase.
OMO has remained a major tool of monetary policy in Nigeria with its effective use in moderating the system’s liquidity (see table 2).
VII) CONCLUSION:
It is obvious to note that the unexpected collapse of oil boom in early 1980s, projected the Nigeria economy into the state of quagmire thus, SAP was adopted to redeem the economy from further deterioration. The main strategies of this programme were - deregulation of external trade and payments arrangements, the adoption of a market-determined exchange rate for the naira, substantial reduction in complex price and administrative controls and more reliance on market forces as a major determinant of the economy.
In line with the general philosophy of economic management under SAP, monetary policy was aimed at inducing the emergence of market-oriented financial savings and efficient resource allocation (see Sanusi, 2002).
However, the factors that have had stood as obstacles to market-oriented monetary control operation were: instability of the financial sector, which was attributed to bank distress and lack of managerial efficiency, resulting to financial institution failures non-harmonization of fiscal and monetary policies and increase government expenditure. These were responsible to large extend, for excess liquidity and inflationary pressure in the economy. Also, the poor state of economic infrastructure, resulting from past neglect, influenced monetary management adversely. Thus, the overall
economic growth was therefore, sluggish with negative consequences for poverty alleviation.
Byrn, R. T. and G,W. stone. 1992. Economics, U.S.A: Harper Collin.
Iyoha, M.A. 1998. Macroeconomics for Developing World, Benin city: Miyo Educational publisher.
Iyoha, M.A. 2002. Macroeconomics: Theory and policy, Benin city: Mareh publishers.
Iyoha, M. A, S.A. Oyefusi and D.E. Oriakhi. 1998. An introduction to modern Economics, Benin city: Mareh publisher.
Iyoha, M. A. 2003. “An overview of Leading issues in the structure and Development of Nigerian Economy since 1960": In Iyoha, M.A. and C.O. Itsede (eds.), Nigeria Economy: Structure, Growth and Development, Benin City: Mindex publishing,Pp3-28.
Nkoro, E. 2003. Analysis of the impact of Monetary policy on Economic Development in Nigeria (1980-2000), University of Benin, Benin City.
Ojo, M.O. 1993. “Monetary policy Instruments in Nigeria, their changing nature and implications": The Nigeria Banker.
Sansui, J.O. 2002. Annual lecture of the Development policy Centre (DPC), Abuja.
Sanusi, J.O. 2002. “The evolution of monetary Management in Nigeria and its impact on Economic Development": CBN Bullion, Vol.26, No.1 pp1-19.
Special Report. 2003. “Economy": News watch, June 9, Vol.37 No.22 pp47-49.
Udegbunam,R.I. 2003. “Monetary and Financial policy": In Iyoha, M.A. and C.O. Itsede (eds), Nigeria Economy: Structure, Growth and Development, Benin City: Mindex publishing, Pp253-279.
» left by esther ngozi from ghana (3 years 86 days ago.)
this is a good attempt of an overview of nigerian monetary sector. keep it up Respond to this comment
» left by Abbas Marafa from Abuja - Nigeria (2 years 191 days ago.)
This is a good attempt. Update the paper to cover most recent development. Respond to this comment
» left by IKHATUA SUNDAY from BENIN (1 year 326 days ago.)
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» left by obinwoh from port harcourt (1 year 306 days ago.)
it was helpful thus,money supply impact in nigeria economy not shown Respond to this comment
» left by Daniel Cole(F.P.I) from Ogun State (1 year 265 days ago.)
This article really helped me during the course of writing my project. Daniel Cole (F.P.I.) Respond to this comment
» left by Benson from Akwa Ibom (1 year 200 days ago.)
it was extremely helpful to me especially during my seminar presentation. Benson, Ukpono B. (Gibbas) Respond to this comment
» left by nhi (1 year 134 days ago.)
make an update on recent monetary policies! Respond to this comment
» left by ezieshi osemeke from Enugu (1 year 131 days ago.)
pricing policy Respond to this comment
» left by adedugba rita from abeokuta (1 year 106 days ago.)
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» left by NKORO ,EMEKA from PORTHARCOURT (1 year 104 days ago.)
thanks for your comments Respond to this comment
» left by Umar Ahijo from Abuja, NIgeria (1 year 94 days ago.)
Dear Sir,
I am Umar Ahijo, A final year student of University of Abuja. I am working on my undergraduate project, but I find it difficult gathering data, materials and statistical information. I would be most grateful if you can mail me some materials. The title of my project is "Operations of Monetary Policy by the CBN 2000-2004". In particular, I would like to have, Mechanisms of Monetary Policy and some statistics like balance of payments 2000-2004, banking system credits to the economy 2000-2004, composite consumer price index 2000-2004, inflation rates 1970-2004 and unemployment rates 2000-2004.
» left by wisdom Dada from delta state (1 year 61 days ago.)
Dear sir,
I am wisdom dada,am doing my master in University of Lagos.i am working on my graduate project,but i find it difficult gathering data,material and statistical information.i would be most grateful if you can mail me some materials.The title of my project is ''External trade and macro economic stability in Nigeria. Respond to this comment
» left by Olivia from Nigeria (1 year 51 days ago.)
Dear Sir,
I Am An M.Sc. Student (Economics) and I Need Data On Tha Unemployement And Inflation Rates Of Nigeria In Period 1980 - 2004.
Kndly email them to me.......
Thanks and God Bless.
Olivia Respond to this comment
» left by Alex TP" from Warri. Nigeria (1 year 34 days ago.)
Dear Sir,
I am master degree student writing on macroeconomic policy of Nigerian government and I must confessed, this material is excellent. Pls, keep the good work going. God bless. Alex Respond to this comment
» left by akinleye funto from ajayi crowther university (1 year 29 days ago.)
i am very proud of you sir,but i wil need ur help from time to time Respond to this comment
» left by chubby from nigerian (1 year 18 days ago.)
IMPACT OF .I.M.F. STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMME IN NIGERIA 1986-2000 Respond to this comment
» left by Tope Bello from Lagos (1 year 7 days ago.)
Nice.I'm Tope Bello, a final year student of St. Augustine, Akoka, Lagos. I advise we need more of these and other literatures available for free for nigerian students.I need literatures on "Impact of Monetary Policy in the Management of Banks in Nigeria"
» left by OLUSANYA PAUL O from SHOMOLU, NIGERIA (330 days 15 hours ago.)
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» left by ABUBAKAR ALI MAGEM from KADUNA/NIGERIA (324 days 18 hours ago.)
great efford keep on. try look into why policy fail in nigeria IAM ABUBAKAR ALI MAGEM U/DOSA KADUNA NIGERIA. Respond to this comment
» left by ijeoma Onuchukwu from Federal Polytechnic, Oko (298 days 15 hours ago.)
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» left by JACOB ZORBARI NWIBU from PORT HARCOURT (279 days 14 hours ago.)
This article has been helpful to me in my term paper on"CBN CONTRIBUTIONS TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA" . Respond to this comment
» left by Abbey from kano (273 days 11 hours ago.)
This is a good research piece. Keep it up, but try to update it to 2008. Respond to this comment
» left by sonola Abiola from Lagos (268 days 17 hours ago.)
its a nice article, my name is Sonola Abiola . from Lagos .. pls i need data and article on the effectiveness on fiscal and monetary policy in Nigeria
» left by Ogunbodede Ojo from OOU, Ago-Iwoye (264 days 13 hours ago.)
Thanks. it has really been helpful. nevertheless, there is always room for improvement. keep it up. God bless you, and God bless Nigeria!!! Ojo Ogunbodede, OOU, Nigeria Respond to this comment
» left by ALIMI MOJISOLA from LAGOS STATE (263 days 15 hours ago.)
am ALIMI MOJISOLA, a final year student from OOU AGO IWOYE. yes.to a great extent,the article has been helpful concerning my project work.but i need a report on how the conduction of monetary policy has affected the performance of nigerian banks.more power to your elbow. Respond to this comment
» left by Dara Ogunbona from Lagos (261 days 7 hours ago.)
Am a graduating student of Olabisi Onabanjo University,Ago-Iwoye.
This article was very useful in getting information for my assignment and project but more data should be put for student who like to work using data.
This is a plusto Nigeria.People like u should be encouraged.God bless u real good.Ogunbona Oluwadara Respond to this comment
» left by Austin from Nigeria (257 days 3 hours ago.)
hello sir am Austin a final year student of Economics in uniport your article has been helpful but i need report for my project on monetary policy and commercial banks performance in nigerian from 1986 to 2006 thanks
» left by TOPE SARUQ from LAGOS (219 days 2 hours ago.)
Really this is a fantastic work which any economics student writing on monetary as an area of economics will find very useful and interesting.By TOPE SARUQ 400 LEVEL ECONOMICS STUDENT OF UNILAG Respond to this comment
» left by emeka from portharcourt (184 days 8 hours ago.)
tope thanks for your complement.
» left by Raheem Dolapo from ibadan (186 days 9 hours ago.)
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» left by aishat abdulkreem from sokoto state (76 days 1 hour ago.)
sir,
My name is Aishat Abdulkareem. A final year of the Usman Danfodio University sokoto. You have really done a good job cause your work has help me in some ways. I really recommend your effort. but can you supply me with the data of omo in controlling money supply from 1999 to 2006. I will be very grateful if my request is granted.
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