The Future? Predictions, Prophecies, Theories, Interesting Links

“Most of us at some time in our lives ponder on or try to look into the future. Some of us read science fiction literature, some read bible prophecies. Others relate to where we came from and try to predict where we are going. In all though we are all trapped in our realistic world and have little time to be too serious about what will be. This article explains and defines a few phrases used in in the science of interpreting predictions or our way of looking into the future. At the end of this article are interesting links to view. I would recommend the *famous predictions* link where every prophecy known to man, from a Utopians view, to a dystopian’s angle, to scientific logic, and religious futures, are available, with descriptions of heaven and hell, and their many different dialogues."

Outside the rigorous context of science, prediction is often confused with informal guess or opinion.

A prediction of this kind might be valid and useful if the predictor is a knowledgeable person in the field and is employing sound reasoning and accurate data. Large corporations invest heavily in this kind of activity to help focus attention on possible events, risks and business opportunities, using futurists Such work brings together all available past and current data, as a basis on which to develop reasonable expectations about the future.

In politics, it is common to attempt to predict the outcome of elections (or assess the popularity of politicians through the use of opinion polls.

What will happen under specific conditions, typically expressed in the form if A is true, then B will also be true. The scientific method is built on testing assertions, which are logical consequences of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable or observational studies.

A scientific theory whose assertions are not in accordance with observations and evidence will probably be rejected. Theories that make no to stable predictions remain protosciences until testable predictions become known to the community.

Mathematical models and computer models are frequently used to both describe the behavior of something, and predict its future behavior.

In the 1840s, the renowned Hungarian physician Ignaz Semmeliweis noticed that women giving birth in the Vienna lying-in hospital were dying in one building, but surviving in another.Upon considering the cause, he found that the surviving women were attended by midwives and not by student physicians, thus he proposed the hypothesis that the physicians were a factor in the deaths. This proposition impelled Semmelweis to refine the factor. What was the difference between the midwives and the doctors? After more thought, Semmelweis decided that the cadavers, which the student doctors were touching, must be part of the factor.

What could the doctors do to avoid the factor? Semmelweis predicted that, if the doctors were to wash their hands, then the cadaver factor will be avoided. Semmelweis therefore instructed the student doctors to wash their hands, and the women who were attended by the doctors survived. Thus, his prediction was successful, and his hypothesis was validated. (Semmelweis, 1861. The Etiology, Understanding, and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever)

Other examples abound in the history of science, ranging from expected predictions which did not occur (such as the Michelson - Morley experiment to new and radical predictions which shockingly confirmed one theory over another (such as the bending of light around the sun seen in the 1919 eclipse , a prediction of Albert Einstein 's theory of General relativity ).

Mathematical models of stock market behavior are also unreliable in predicting future behavior. Consequently, stock investors may anticipate or predict a stock market boom, or fail to anticipate or predict a stock market crash. An Actuary uses actuarial science to assess and predict future business risk, such that the risk(s) can be mitigated. For example, in insurance an actuary would use a life table to predict life expectancy.

Fiction (especially fantasy, forecasting and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means.

In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through magic or prophecy, sometimes referring back to old traditions. For example, in J.R.R. Tolken’s The Lord Of the Rings, many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague 'feelings'. The character Galadriel, in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events.

In some of Philip K, Dick’s stories, mutant humans called precogs can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In the story called The Golden Man, an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his death), and thus becomes completely non-human, an animal that follows the predicted paths automatically.

In the Foundation series by Isaac Asimoy, a mathematician finds out that historical events (up to some detail) can be theoretically modeled using equations, and then spends years trying to put the theory in practice. The new science of psychohistory founded upon his success can simulate history and extrapolate the present into the future.

In Frank Herbert’s sequels to Dune, his characters are dealing with the repercussions of being able to see the possible futures and select amongst them. Herbert sees this as a trap of stagnation, and his characters follow a Golden Path out of the trap.

In Ursula K LeGuin’s 's The Left Hand of Darkness , the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device.