| The fourth assessment of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that eleven of the warmest years since instrumental records began occurred during the last twelve years. The report concludes that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current pace and are allowed to double from their pre-industrial level, the world will realize an average temperature rise of around 3 degrees (C) this century.
It is with this report in mind that the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali convened this month. The Bali conference is the culmination of twelve months of world climate debate. The conference is hoping to produce a breakthrough in the form of a roadmap for a future climate change deal between nations. A meaningful agreement would have to include two of the world's largest polluters, China and the United States. For the international community, pollution as a by product of economic growth is accepted. Historically, trying to gain a consensus on action to address the problem of global warming has been a formidable task indeed for the United Nations.
However, the best chance of short-term relief from global warming may not be anything that happens at the United Nations Conference in Bali. It may be what is not occurring with our Sun. The number of sunspots rise and fall in irregular eleven year cycles. There is evidence that over time a greater number of sunspots can provide a warming influence on Earth. Also, in periods of low sunspot activity, the Earth's temperature can temporarily cool. The fact is that the latest sunspot cycle has been in decline for the last few years and now our Sun has gone quiet. Sunspots have not been observed for months.
In a recent article ( The Independent, Ray Of hope : Can the sun save us from global warming? ) astronomer Dr. David Whitehouse writes: "Sunspots (magnetic dark blotches on the Sun) should have arrived last December (2006). It is a year later and they still have not been seen. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to revise their predictions on when sunspots will reappear. The current estimate of March 2008 will be revised soon because sunspots are heralded by the appearance of small spots at high latitudes and none are yet evident. These small spots indicate the reappearance of sunspots more than a year in advance. That means there will be no sunspots from our Sun before 2009 at the earliest. The longer we have to wait for the next sunspot cycle, the weaker it is likely to be".
The fact is that throughout the 20th century, sunspot cycle activity had been very high. Now it appears that the next sunspot cycle could be a weak one. This weak solar activity may cool temperatures on the Earth and provide temporary relief for the problem of global warming. Sunspots have been identified and observed since the year 1610. The number of sunspots and their cycles have been recorded by man for nearly three centuries. Though not well understood, the strength of the sunspot cycle has a long recorded history which can be linked to the Earth's ever changing climate.
Looking back through time, scientists and astronomers can generally align warmer and cooler climate periods with sunspot cycles. Low sunspot activity produces lower temperatures on Earth. High sunspot activity indicates warmer periods. Over the last century, the Earth has seen a higher level of sunspot activity than has been seen in thousands of years. That high level of activity appears to be changing as we continue to wait for the next sunspot cycle to appear.
In fact, the change in sunspot activity can provide dramatic changes on Earth. In the "Little Ice Age" of 1645 to 1715 very few sunspots were seen on the sun. The "Little Ice Age" was a period of dramatic cooling occurring after a warm era. It brought bitterly cold winters to many parts of the world, but is a most thoroughly documented event in Europe and North America. The Earth may have been as much as twelve degrees below average during this period.
Low sunspot activity was given the name of the Dalton Solar Minimum between 1790 and 1820. The Earth's temperature during this period was several degrees lower than average. Low sunspot activity and colder temperatures are linked in research in earlier times as well. Until the decline in activity over the last few years, the Earth had seen a high level of sunspot activity since 1890. Sunspot activity peaked in 1975 and had leveled off until the recent decline.
Computer analysis involved in global warming indicates that temperatures will begin to rise again in the next several years. These calculations do not include the correlation of sunspot activity with the Earth's temperature. Sunspot observations and climate analysis have indicated a direct correlation between cooling and warming on Earth with sunspot activity. The potential cooling of the Earth as a result of a weak sunspot activity cycle during the next decade could more than offset any additional increase in temperature attributed to man.
The United Nations conference on global warming in Bali is being held at the same time that the new sunspot cycle is late in appearing to scientists and astronomers. If I were a gambling man and I had to choose between the United Nations and the Sun to give mankind some relief from the global temperature rise, based on the history of both, my betting chips are on the Sun.
James William Smith has worked in senior management positions for some of the largest financial services firms in the United States for the last twenty five years. He has also provided business consulting support for insurance organizations and start up businesses. Mr. Smith has a Bachelor of Science Degree from Boston College. He enjoys writing articles on political, national, and world events. Visit his website at http://www.eworldvu.com
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