As I outlined in an earlier article, Mike Huckabee's original plan for capturing the Republican presidential nomination included a win in South Carolina. Obviously, that plan has now gone by the wayside. But does Huckabee have a "Plan B"? I believe he does and we will see it coming into play beginning in Florida.
As part of that plan, Huckabee is likely to discontinue campaigning in Florida well ahead of next week's primary. I believe his reasons are twofold. First, with limited resources in hand and Florida being a winner-take-all state, why would he want to spend a large portion of them there, only to finish second, third, or fourth and have no delegates to show for it? His money and time would be better spent in states where he would have a better chance to win or at least come away with some delegates.
Second, if Huckabee feels that he cannot win Florida, it would be in his best interest to have Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney win it to keep the race wide open going into Super Tuesday. A win there by John McCain would effectively end the race and wrap up the nomination for him. If Huckabee were to stop campaigning in Florida, it is likely that many of his potential voters in the Sunshine State would switch to Romney, possibly throwing the state to the former Massachusetts governor. However, Huckabee's absence in Florida would probably not help Giuliani, whose potential voters are the polar opposite of those who lean toward Huckabee. Actually, a Giuliani win in Florida would be better for Huckabee than a Romney win. But a Giuliani win with Romney coming in second would be the ideal scenario for the former Arkansas governor.
On Super Tuesday and beyond, Huckabee feels that he can win all the remaining southern states. (By the way, Florida is not a true southern state anymore because of all its transplanted residents, mainly retirees, from the northeast corridor). But what gives Huckabee reason to believe he can win the remaining southern states when he couldn't win South Carolina? Well, because there were two things at play in South Carolina that won't be in the other southern states. First, there was Fred Thompson siphoning off social conservative votes. Thompson is now gone. Second, even with Thompson in the race in South Carolina, Huckabee still won a plurality of the votes of registered Republicans. Had South Carolina been a closed primary, he would have won it. Independent votes gave McCain his victory in the Palmetto State. However, in most of the remaining states in Dixie, Republicans hold closed primaries.
Now, winning southern states alone cannot give Huckabee the GOP nomination. However, he could parlay those victories into wins in other socially conservative states (as least as far as GOP voters are concerned) from the Midwest and west. States like Alaska, Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, the Dakotas, Montana, and Idaho come to mind. And didn't Pennsylvania once elect extreme social conservative Rick Santorum to the U.S. Senate and anti-abortion Democrat Bob Casey to the governor's mansion? That seems like fertile ground for Huckabee as well. Remember, he did win in Iowa, which no one considers to be a southern state.
