Barack Obama is not quite ready to claim victory yet in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. However, he would be justified in doing so -- and that's even if the results from Michigan and Florida are figured into the equation. All one has to do is crunch a few numbers to see why.
Including the results from yesterday's Kentucky and Oregon primaries, Obama now leads Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates by approximately 155. Not counting Florida and Michigan yet, there are three nominating contests remaining -- in Puerto Rico on June 1st, and in South Dakota and Montana on June 3rd. These three venues offer a total of 86 pledged delegates. Assuming Hillary Clinton garners 60% of those delegates (which is unlikely, but I'm being generous to her for the purposes of my argument), she would only net a total of 18 delegates from them (52 to Obama's 34). That would cut Obama's pledged delegate lead to 137.
Now let's assume that the Rules Committee of the Democratic Party decides to include the results from Michigan and Florida, giving Clinton proportions of delegates that match the margins she won by in those respective primaries. Michigan would have had 156 delegates and Florida would have had 210. In Michigan, Clinton got 55% of the vote to Obama's 0% (since his name was not on the ballot there). That means Clinton beat him by a margin of 55%, netting her 86 delegates (156 x 55%). In Florida, Clinton got 50% to Obama's 33%, giving her a margin of 17%. That would net her 35 delegates (210 x 17%). That would still leave Obama with a margin of 16 in the pledged delegate race, with no more races left and no states to add back in.
Now, most super delegates have indicated that they will support whoever wins the most pledged delegates. Therefore, they would likely coalesce around Obama (as they are already doing), even assuming circumstances that would unrealistically favor Hillary Clinton.
Terry Mitchell is a software engineer, freelance writer, amateur political analyst, and blogger from Virginia, USA. He posts a least one article a day to his blog - http://commenterry.blogs.com - on subjects such as current events, politics, technology, society and culture, religion, health and well-being, self improvement, personal finance, trivia, and sports. His commentaries offer a unique point of view that is not often found in mainstream media. His articles here on SearchWarp represent only a small portion of his work. All of it can be found on his blog. If you like his articles, you'll love his blog.
» left by Terry Mitchell(2,295) Terry Mitchell (147 days ago.)
Well, Robert, it might not, but as a political junkie, I think this primary season has been so much fun to watch. I really hate to see it end.
» left by Robert Melaccio, Sr.(6,698) Robert Melaccio, Sr. (146 days 21 hours ago.)
Terry, I don't mean this toward you. You know I'm not one to voice my opinion, ha. No it was over before it even started and yes if you can get involved in wanting to know just who it will will between Hillary or Obama, keep in mind the power behind it all? Do you think Hillary would still be in this if it Biden or one of the others? best wishes.
» left by Terry Mitchell(2,295) Terry Mitchell (146 days 6 hours ago.)
Robert, Hillary will be in this as long as she thinks she's got the slightest chance -- and it wouldn't matter who her opponent was.
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