Yesterday John McCain surprised most of the pundits -- myself included -- with his selection of a dark horse candidate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, as his running mate. I'll be the first to admit that I was dead wrong in guessing that his short list had been narrowed to just Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. The only thing most of us got right is the fact that he picked a governor. In doing so, he assured that Ms. Palin will become the first sitting governor in 40 years to be nominated by a major party for vice president. The last was Spiro Agnew, then governor of Maryland, in 1968.
The pros of Ms. Palin's selection are many. She is a strong social conservative who is solidly pro-life and opposes same-sex marriage. McCain needed to shore things up with the right wing of his party and this certainly helps. She is an anti-tax fiscal conservative. She has the reputation of being a reformer who can get things done. A hunter and gun owner, Palin is clearly supportive of Second Amendment rights. As a governor, she is an outsider to Beltway politics, an offset to McCain's image as a Washington insider.
In addition, she is very attractive. That's an important factor for any politician, especially a woman (which I say at the risk of being accused of male chauvinism). In fact, she is a former beauty queen who represented her hometown the 1984 Miss Alaska beauty pageant.
Like McCain, Palin is known as a maverick. She will likely help McCain reinforce his image as one who doesn't always follow his party's line. Her western roots may help McCain solidify his grip on the west, where Republicans have dominated in presidential elections, but where Barack Obama plans to put up a fight this time around.
But the most obvious advantage of her selection is the fact the she's a woman, only the second one selected as the running mate of a major party's presidential nominee. The first was Geraldine Ferraro, who was selected by Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale in 1984. McCain is obviously going after disgruntled supporters of Hillary Clinton by becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to name a woman to the number two spot on the ticket. He has already targeted them in a TV ad. Palin's presence on the ticket may be just what was needed to convince many of these people to come on over to McCain.
Of course, there are also some possible cons. Governor Palin is almost a complete unknown with little name recognition, and has yet to be vetted by the national media. Her lack of experience in foreign policy and other national issues will certainly be a target of the Democrats. They will also stress the fact that she has been a governor for less than two years. This may cause people to think she is not ready to be a heartbeat away from presidency. Therefore, she will need to guard against the fate that befell Dan Quayle, i.e., being branded as a political lightweight from the outset. And there will be questions about how well should could do in the vice presidential debate against Joe Biden.
The fact that she calls herself a feminist may arouse the suspicions of some right-wing conservatives. As was the case with Biden, she is from a small state (population-wise) that was already in the presidential nominee's electoral column. And although she hails from a working class background, her selection does nothing to counter Biden's appeal in the "rust belt" states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.
Her physical beauty that I mentioned above could prove to be a two-edged sword. If one is too attractive, it can sometimes be an albatross. It could be a distraction and make it difficult for her to be taken seriously. Normally, the only place you would find a female politician who looked that would be in a TV movie. That could make her an instant favorite of the tabloid media -- not a good thing.
Just as the selection of a woman attracts some voters, it may put off others, especially considering McCain's age. The real possibility that a woman, especially one as young as the 44-year-old Palin, could become president on a moment's notice could prove too frightening for some older voters. Keep in mind that older voters have been overwhelmingly favoring McCain in the polls. McCain could ill-afford to lose very many of them.
With all of that being said, the selection of Governor Palin as his running mate will probably have little impact on whether or not McCain wins in November. McCain will sink or swim based on his own appeal to voters, as compared to that of Senator Obama.
|
