With his ascending lead in national polls over McCain, why is the Obama Campaign still in high gear and overspending the McCain Camp all over the country? Why won't these guys lighten up, ride the upward waves all the way to the White House?
Because, like they say at Black Gospel concerts, "It ain't over till the fat lady sings."
Here are some key reasons why Senator Obama dare not slumber on the politically experienced War Hero, who is probably the real Come Back Kid of contemporary American politics:
1. The Evangelical Vote: When it comes to elections in recent American history, the people of faith are just that -
faithful. With Senator Obama's strong pro-choice or pro-abortion stance, the Evangelical army could be his worst enemy in the 2008 elections.
Protecting the life of the unborn is always a rallying cry for these faithful ones, and Sarah Palin has already begun to focus the choir on the sheet of music.
The Barna Group, a research firm that often probes the faith-politics connection, says, "Among all faith segments measured, evangelicals have had the highest voter turnout percentage in each of the last three presidential elections."
That cannot help Obama in any way, though some "Green Evangelicals" may be reason for solace in Obama country. Also, Evangelicals more concerned about poverty issues, may increase Obama's comfort level somewhat.
But Barna cites more bad news for the Democratic candidate: "The faith segments with the highest voter registration percentages are evangelicals (92% are registered) and Catholics (91%). The lowest registration figures belong to Skeptics (76% of the atheists and agnostics) and just 68% among adults associated with non-Christian faiths."
Not only that but "among evangelicals 66% are mostly conservative and just 3% say they are mostly liberal!"
There may be another silver lining in there for the Democrat: Catholic voters, who, though prolife, tend to vote Democrats on account of social justice issues. It is possible that the Catholic vote on the Democratic side may offset and cancel out the Evangelical vote on the Republican side. At least, that's one of Obama's hope hangers.
Bottom line? Obama needs the lowest possible turnout of Evangelical voters, but that's a prayer not easily answered these days, especially with Gov. Sarah Palin's booster shot in the arms of prolife and Evangelical voters that were once lukewarm about the not-so religious proud John McCain.
2. Unforgiving Hillary Clinton Voters: Near the end of August, a
News Busters poll found that as many as 1 out of 3 persons (28%) who voted for Mrs. Clinton during the Democratic primary race said they would not vote for Obama in the general elections. That was just two months ago, during the Democratic National Convention. The Hillary cloud has not completely gone away, as some Clintonites still insist on sitting this election out or even voting for John McCain. Senator Clinton herself has chosen to doubt that a significant number of her supporters will actually pull the lever for the Republicans come November 4th, but Mrs. Clinton's doubt may be less than faith that her ardent supporters won't do just that.
3. Undecideds that May Break for McCain: Jeffrey Love of the Policy & Research arm of AARP (American Association of Retired Persons) reports on a survey of undecided voters commissioned by that organization in September 2008, and the results are not exactly good news for Obama.
Dr. Love reports, "Voters who have not completely made up their minds about for whom they plan to vote tend to be older (67% are aged 50 and older), female (67%), married, well-educated (26% have at least some college, and 36% have a college degree or more), almost always vote in presidential elections, are relatively well off financially (35% report earning over $50,000 annually), are largely Caucasian (85% white), are more likely to be a political independent (37%), and consider themselves to be a moderate (47%)."
From that sentence, terms like "older", "married", "independent" and "moderate" may not favor a Democratic candidate.
Senior news analyst Juan Williams recently said on National Public Radio that 1 in 5 white Americans could vote either way. That's 20% of voters that could swing the election. Again, not good for Obama. No wonder many pundits are saying it might be a safe bet to assume that, given the state of the country, particularly the economy, most people who are still undecided at this point in the game should be all but counted in the McCain column.
The sum total of these dynamics points to one thing: Team Obama has no room or reason to pop champagnes and exchange hi-5s until the votes are tallied, not a minute sooner, regardless of what the polls say right up to Elections Day.
Can Obama beat the odds? Yes, but it will take nothing less than an extraordinary stride and sprint to the finish. Anything less, and this candidate will make history as the politician who lost the most winnable election in American politics. I'm afraid that's not the kind of history the Illinois senator wants historians to write.
