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Executive Summary
– There were rumors going around that Panama was going to get two new
US Navy bases. Well that is not exactly true. They are going to open
two new Panama bases. Of course Panama has no military so it is a good
question as to how they are going to operate a Naval Base.
Then
we learn that the US Navy and the US Coast Guard will be assisting
Panama with these bases. Assisting seems to be a bad choice of words
since Panama has no serious radar, sonar ship detectors, satellites,
air force, naval air force, aircraft carriers, anti-mine craft, LST
(landing boats), helo carriers, submarines, missile cruisers, supply
ships, frigates, and so forth. I would guess the panama government does
not even own a seaplane.
Panama may indeed have enough
watercraft to rescue a fisherman in distress close to their mainland or
shoot up some smugglers in a zodiac but beyond this they have no assets
of military value since Noriega and he had precious little at that. The
two new bases will be located at Bahía Pina in the Darien Jungle region
known for smuggling in close proximity to the border with Colombia, and
in Punta Coca in the area known as Veraguas.
Collateral Factors
– China has contracts enabling them to operate the container loading
and unloading facilities at both ends of the Panama Canal. It is not
clear how this fits in yet but read on. Obama has been imposing
protectionist import duties on Chinese tires and steel pipes which have
the Chinese mad. See the story on Reuters.
US to mull new duties on China steel pipe imports
China has contracts worth billions in Iran:
Iran, China Sign $5 Billion Contract on South Pars Gas Field
In
December 2007, China's Sinopec signed a $2,000,000,000 contract with
the Iran government to develop the Yadavaran oil fields. In January
2009, CNPC, (China oil and gas company) entered into a $1,700,000,000
oil contract for the Azadegan oil field. In March 2009 Iran and China
signed a $3,200,000,000 deal for natural gas development. China is also
importing 15% of its crude oil from Iran. So China has a vested
interest in Iran.
It looks like the Middle East may ignite
into a war with Iran. The USA may directly be involved or may not be
directly involved but the USA will support Israel and it looks like
there will be an attack. Of course China could become a pain to the
USA. What if they say well we are going to take sanctions against USA
and not load the USA ships containers, or same for ships going to or
from USA. What if they delay the loading by a few days? What is they
raise the rates? USA has a problem potentially so they put in two new
navy bases in the name of the war on drugs.
I believe it is
getting a head start on taking back the Panama Canal if need be, which
is allowed under the terms of the treaty. If the US says the canal is
threatened or the efficiency is off then they can unilaterally take it
back. Possibly they would take back the container loading facilities
that China has and would like some localized muscle there if they go
this route. This may be a more attractive option now since the canal
expansion is well under way.
The new expanded canal will
allow the oil super tankers to pass through thus making it even more
strategically important. I would not be surprised to soon see USA
police agents operating (like conducting investigations, conducting
interviews as in the old days) freely in Panama or with the local
Police, to assure the security of the canal from terrorists.
In
the old days the USA agents had authority in Panama proper if they were
investigating something that occurred in the Canal Zone like a crime.
Another consideration is the USA federal agents like NCIS (Naval Criminal Investigative Service) and CGI (Coast Guard Intelligence) will
be assigned to Panama to protect the assets now placed on these bases.
Their duties will include conducting investigations concerning crimes,
potential crimes, threats to the military assets, anti-terrorism,
conducting background investigations like on civilians they employ or
suppliers they contract with, and since it is supposedly an anti-drug
operation they will be investigating drug traffickers one can assume.
This
will all be going on in Panama proper (there is no more Panama Canal
Zone of 25 sq. miles) along with interdicting "suspicious" ships in
Panama waters which the US Coast Guard has been doing for some time. If
I were a bookmaker I would give good odds on the Panama ship registry
shrinking in size soon.
Panama held an attraction in the
past for people seeking to leave their high tax police state country
and live in a neutral country as free people without daily interference
by government. Panama does not get it yet.
http://www.panamalaw.org
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